Showing posts with label bailout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bailout. Show all posts

Monday, June 01, 2009

GM Bankruptcy: Toldja.

On November 11, 2008, I said:

  • The former Big Three are hemorrhaging cash, which an infusion will not stop.
  • They'll have a larger debt load.
  • Strings attached to the bailout will include limits on executive compensation and, possibly, government mandates to produce smaller, more efficient cars.

Since the Big Three lose money making smaller, more efficient cars, making more of them in itself won't help profitability. Since a big problem with the automakers has been poor management, limits on executive compensation will only cause the best managers to leave for more pastures which are perhaps less green, but more golden.


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Monday, April 20, 2009

Obama To Make Draconian Budget Cuts

President Obama, after spending a mere trillion dollars on government growth in an effort to "stimulate" the economy, and pushing dramatic leaps in Federal spending in his budget, has laid out a bold plan to cut as much as $100 million.




Budget:$3,000,000,000,000
Stimulus:$900,000,000,000
Cuts:$100,000,000


How can he make these awful cuts, while spending in other areas barely keeps pace? Is he going to order women and children to starve in the street, while AIDS patients are left with no medicines, and senior citizens choose between paying the light bill and buying cat food to eat?


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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

More Proof Robert Reich is an Idiot

As if more proof were required to verify his status as world-class moron, Robert Reich provides it:

We're in a deepening recession, in case you hadn't noticed. The biggest challenge is to ramp up aggregate demand. Yes, we have to borrow lots from the Chinese and Japanese to do this, and, yes, it's costly in terms of additional interest payments to them. But there's no choice. In fact, if the slump gets worse -- and I have every reason to fear it will because that's the direction we're heading in as fast as you can imagine -- we'll probably have to have a second stimulus. And if the second isn't enough, a third. And so on. FDR's biggest mistake was doing too little until World War II. (No one should interpret this as a recommendation for more military spending -- I'm just saying Obama will probably have to think and do much bigger than the $787 billion stimulus so far.)


Shorter Reich: A never works, B has worked before, and there is no C. Let's do A.


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Thursday, February 19, 2009

93% Of US Are Not Stupid Jerks

2% In Foreclosure
5% Delinquent
33% Current
27% No Mortgage
32% Rent

w/t Malkin


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Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Bottom-up, or Craniorectal Inversion?

During this year's presidential campaign, Barack Obama posited that the economy should grow not from the top down, but "from the bottom up".

After the election he is showing his true big-government beliefs in action. Only government can solve our problems, he says.

Clearly, he's a top-down kind of guy.


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Friday, December 26, 2008

I know: let's borrow billions

of dollars, use it to build a train no one will ride, justify it with a problem that doesn't exist and that it won't address, and wait for an earthquake.


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Friday, December 19, 2008

Fisking the White House Bailout of GM and Chrysler

President Bush has decided to give some number of billions of dollars of TARP money, which was supposed to be used for financial firms, to two failing car companies.

In doing so, he said ... well, let us fisk, shall we?

Bush said in normal economic circumstances


What are "normal" circumstances? Is there any set of circumstances that we could call "normal" that would cause companies the size of GM and Chrysler to fail, while other companies are not failing? Or would the fact of two of these companies failing be considered evidence that circumstances were not "normal"?

he would not intervene to save the automakers


Intervening is one word, "meddling in private business by Executive fiat to favor two companies over their competitors with an unconstitutional bill of attainder" describes it better. And saving the automakers may be what he says he's doing, but it's really his own image he's worried about. "Something must be done, this is something, therefor this must be done." These steps are neither necessary nor sufficient to save the automakers from anything except a painful, newsworthy Christmas. In these times of pain avoidance, Mr. Bush is just doing the expedient thing: borrowing money to loan to people who have no clear means to pay it back.

but "in the midst of a financial crisis


The financial crisis has very little to do with the automakers problems, except that their problems were caused primarily by the run-up in oil prices, making people unwilling to buy inefficient but high-markup trucks and SUVs that they had previously wanted as toys and status symbols.

To the extent that the financial crisis is a cause of the GM and Chrysler problems, it's because they have continued to make ever-more-expensive vehicles believing that people would continue to buy them on credit. When people suddenly became credit-wary, realizing the foolishness of taking a loan against a depreciating asset, the car makers were sunk.

But now that people have realized that it's foolish to pay interest on something which is losing value, no amount of Federal credit assistance is going to rescue the car companies.

"and a recession,


Again, would there ever be a car maker failure during some other economic phase?

"allowing the U.S. auto industry to collapse


The collapse bogeyman, too big to fail, etc. If these companies cannot make it, they should be allowed to fail now before we dump huge amounts of money we don't have into propping them up. We will be paying the interest on the debt we incur propping up the failing companies long after they go under anyway.

"is not a responsible course of action."


Saying it doesn't make it so. The responsible thing is to let people face the consequences of their actions. Call it compassion, call it anything else, but responsible it is not.


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Thursday, December 18, 2008

I've Got a Fever, and the Only Cure is More Iowahawk

Dave Burge has a way with satire:

"After the 1982 strike SantaCorp offered the UET a generous pension plan promising free lifetime candy canes and unicorns," explained Kessler. "It seemed like a good idea at the time, but the company accountants forgot to factor in elf immortality."


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Saturday, December 13, 2008

A Mindset Is A Terrible Thing To Waste

Josh Marshall, for whom I've a bit of a troll crush lately, writes at TPM about a Senate Republican memo concerning the UAW giveaway. Ever the conspiracy-seeking projectionist, Marshal asserts that it is "very revealing -- though hardly surprising."

I think it's hardly revealing or surprising, excepting the headline which Marshall takes out of context from the memo (via MSLSDBC):

From: [redacted]

Sent: Wednesday, December 10, 2008 9:12 AM

To: [redacted]

Subject: Action Alert -- Auto Bailout



Today at noon, Senators Ensign, Shelby, Coburn and DeMint will hold a press conference in the Senate Radio/TV Gallery. They would appreciate our support through messaging and attending the press conference, if possible. The message they want us to deliver is:


1. This is the democrats first opportunity to payoff organized labor after the election. This is a precursor to card check and other items. Republicans should stand firm and take their first shot against organized labor, instead of taking their first blow from it.


2. This rush to judgment is the same thing that happened with the TARP. Members did not have an opportunity to read or digest the legislation and therefore could not understand the consequences of it. We should not rush to pass this because Detroit says the sky is falling.


The sooner you can have press releases and documents like this in the hands of members and the press, the better. Please contact me if you need additional information. Again, the hardest thing for the democrats to do is get 60 votes. If we can hold the Republicans, we can beat this.


Notice that the context of "taking their first shot" is within the auto bailout fight, not in politics generally. Thus the memo doesn't reveal a grand strategy to take down organized labor, but simply encourages Republicans to be on offense, not defense, as regards a forthcoming attack from labor.


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Friday, December 12, 2008

TPM Watch: Josh Marshall is half right

Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo writes that Democrats may use their majority to do away with the filibuster in the Senate. I agree with Marshall that they should not do that, that having a minority with some power to act is good for the republic.

But then, there is this:

Finally, this issue now goes well beyond the fate of the American automakers. Senate Republicans are following this course for three key reasons -- first is payback against a major industrial union; second is payback against states like Michigan and Ohio who have been moving away from the GOP; third is the desire to advantage Japanese auto manufacturers who disproportionately do business in their southern states.

What even the White House can see at this point is that having one or more of these companies go under right now will rapidly accelerate the economic crisis, and in unpredictable ways.

I don't think Josh understands Republicans at all, or perhaps prefers his narratives to be untarnished with the stain of reality. There is no "payback" involved, either against a labor union or especially against the voters of any State. That's just stupid. Payback?

This is about Republican Senators standing up for capitalism and against socialism. If you want to be cynical, they're establishing their conservative cred -- pandering to the base, you would say.

And the last paragraph is a repeat of the false dilemma: the choice is bailout versus Chapter 11 restructuring, not going under.


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Capitalist Victory Over Unions, Obama, Bush, Detroit, Democrats and Media on Bailout

Despite strong support among Democrats in Congress and the media, Republicans led by Senators Corker and Shelby won a key vote Thursday evening, with support for capitalism showing renewed strength in the against the socialist forces led by lame duck President George Bush, former Senator Barack Obama (D-IL), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), and Harry Reid (D-NV) in the Senate.

Both the United Auto Workers (UAW) labor union and the Detroit auto makers supported a plan by Mr. Bush and the Democrats to loan approximately $15 billion to the failing Detroit auto industry. The plan would have called for bankruptcy-like changes for the troubled companies, as well as the appointment of a government ombudsman or "car tzar" to approve all major decisions for the companies accepting the money.

Negotiations failed when the labor union, whose workers receive over $70 per hour in benefits, refused to take a pay cut to allow the plan to go forward.

The public was overall against the plan, despite intense support from the news media. Media reports portrayed the total collapse of the American automotive industry as the alternative to this plan.

Former Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D-Chicago), who resigned last month amid the corruption scandal which has so far resulted in an indictment against his close allies Antoin "Tony" Rezko and Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (D-Chicago) was not directly involved in the negotiations.


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Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich (D-Chicago) Frog-Marched

He should have hid in Springfield. No one would ever have found him.

I was formulating a post on his idiotic insistence that the State of Illinois would not do business with Bank of America unless the Bank of America paid off one of his unions, but it appears I don't have to worry about posting that.

The corruption in Illinois is systemic and pervasive. Will it ever be cleaned up? Only when the citizens of this State decide that they're tired of it.

Which implies that they first become tired of it, which may be a long time coming.


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Friday, December 05, 2008

What Bothers Me About The Bailouts

I do not care about the ripple effect of automobile maker failure, bankruptcy, or other harm.

I do not care about my 401k, Midwest tax revenues, or any other alleged effect that even the total loss of GM would engender.

What I care about is our economic system, which is being destroyed by socialism, to the crocodile tears of the supposed capitalists on Wall Street and in Detroit. They are selling their souls for the sake of a temporary respite, and we will all suffer for it.

From where is this $34 Billion going to come? We’re going to borrow it, at interest. How is that interest going to be paid? By borrowing at interest. And so it would continue, ad infinitum, until the money supply is so inflated that it will take an illegal dump truck to carry enough money to the illegal gas station to illegally fill it up.

We’re worrying about ripples from spitballs while dropping boulders into the pond.


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Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Detroit CEOs: Beatings to Continue Until Morale Improves

These guys should not be in Washington, asking for money. They should be in Detroit, making it.

Actually, they should be standing in front of a judge, asking for Chapter 11 protection from the unions bankrupting them. They plan to do some of that, according to this unreliable source, but not enough.

General Motors Corp., Ford and Chrysler LLC said they would refinance their companies’ debt, cut executive pay, seek concessions from workers and find other ways of reviving their staggering companies.
The only thing they need to be asking Congress to do is to drop the stupid CAFE standards and let the naturally rising gas prices influence which kind of cars people buy.

Now Ford is promising to boost fuel economy across its fleet by 14% this year. But they can't keep that promise, because it again depends on which cars people buy. For Ford to make the effort means that they are pursuing something other than the long-term viability of their company, which will inevitably lead to a suboptimal result.

Further, the car companies are expected to put a moratorium on incentive pay for salaried workers. Rather than reward success, the companies are going to punish failure.

And by selling airplanes, restructuring operations, and undergoing other cost-saving changes, they are simply nibbling along the edges of their problem, which is that because of their high labor and tax costs, they can't make money selling fuel-efficient cars..

Selling 14% more of something is not a recipe for success when you lose money selling each one.


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Monday, December 01, 2008

Congressman: Bailout Dwarfs Income Tax

From Beyond Bailouts:

...Over the Thanksgiving break, [Congressman Louie Gohmert (R-TX)] noted Congress had given the Treasury Secretary the authority to spend $1.7 trillion of your tax dollars (although the bailout has cost far more than that). That number is greater than the $1.21 trillion the federal government will receive in income tax this year. So what's Gohmert's plan? He wants to revoke the Treasury Secretary's authority to buy assets and instead suspend the income tax for a year.


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Why is the Bailout Unconstitutional?

The Paulson Bailout fiasco is unconstitutional not merely because there is nowhere listed in the Constitutional a Federal authority to bail out commercial enterprises.

The Bailout is an ex post facto bill of attainder, both of which are of course forbidden by the Constitution.

An Ex Post Facto law is one which is written after the fact to address some problem.

A Bill of Attainder is trial by legislation.

And that is what we have in the Paulson Bailout.

-------- Update --------
I ran this past a lawyer friend, who said that actually, Congress can and does single out individuals for special benefit all the time. It can even name them, but the reason it doesn't usually do so is political, rather than legal.

It seems illogical, to me, because how does one draw the line between a punishment and a benefit? If Congress singles out Acme, Inc. for special benefits coupled with special labor rules, for instance, that may be on balance a positive or a negative thing for Acme. It seems to me that there is a spectrum or range from outlawing a company's existence to giving them too-big-to-fail money.


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The Coming Incorrect Response to the Wrong Problem

In all likelihood, when the Electoral College of the United States meets in December, Barack Hussein Obama will be elected President. Despite his unproven eligibility, Obama is very good at behind-the-scenes political arm-twisting and race-baiting, and will probably garner enough votes push aside his closest competitors.

But leaving aside how we got to this point, Obama will live in the White House.

So what is he going to do? He's going to respond to the economic "crisis" as FDR responded to the depression of 1929: spend like mad, in an effort to get reelected. But as Yid With Lid puts it, that won't help us recover:

As late as 1938, nine years into the depression, almost one out of five workers remained unemployed. What the government gave with one hand, through increased spending, it took away with the other, through increased taxation, and the increased power of labor. But that was not an even trade-off. As the root cause of a great deal of mismanagement and inefficiency, government was responsible for a lost decade of economic growth.
And this is not the depression of 1929, or even 1932. It's a crisis in credit confidence brought on by years of systemic government over-regulation and intervention.

Companies have been burdened with reporting requirements that cost them millions in accounting charges, for little tangible benefit. Compliance with the Sarbanes-Oxley rules alone costs a business about a million dollars a year, and for the small-to-medium businesses that are the backbone of the economy -- where the jobs are -- that's a serious hurdle. And it's for nothing more than paperwork.

After forcing banks to make loans to people who couldn't afford them, Congress and the Obama-led forces of political correctness are now going to double down to keep people in the homes they still can't afford, in the name of pain avoidance. It will lead to the same place it did before: default and crash.

Now as each new company deemed too big to fail teeters on the brink of failure, rather than allowing them to fail and trusting that the system which has worked for hundreds of years will continue to work, we assume that we are smarter than our forbears. We can succeed in directing from Mount Etna the affairs of men. Yes, we can.

So rather than admit the failure of the Community Reinvestment and Sarbanes-Oxley Acts, we expand government without care or concern as to what the long-term effect of doing so may be.

It's a crisis!
We must to something!
This is something!
This must be done!

In reality we are not addressing the same problem they were faced with in 1929 or 1932. Even if we were faced with the Great Depression, imitating Hoover and Roosevelt would not solve it. The only answer is to first stop doing, with excessive intervention and regulation, the damage we are doing, and allow the natural wonder that is the American economy again to display its awesome powers.


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Friday, November 28, 2008

When in Doubt, Blame Bush

Prediction: even though the stock market lost over 20% of its value, from 9600 to 7600, in the 16 days following Barack Obama's election, what will be reported is the big run up it will make getting back to 9600. It will be the Obama Bull Market.

You watch.

But when anything bad happens, it will be blamed on President Bush.

After the idiocy of the bailout mania under Bush and Paulson, I'm not sure I'll even disagree.


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Why Can't the Government Do Something?

"Why can't the government do something about the American auto industry?"

They can do something about it.

"Why don't they fix it, then?"

They can't do that.

"But you said they could!"

No, I said they could do something about it. They can outlaw it, they can subsidize it some more, and they and even take it over. But none of those things would fix it.

"'Take it over'?"

Yes, they could easily buy a controlling interest in the car companies.

"Why don't they do that?"

There is nothing in our Constitution about that.

"Exactly my point! Why don't they just buy the auto makers?"

Our government doesn't do that kind of thing. And it wouldn't fix the problem. It would only make the government more interested in funding them further.

"But you said they could."

Republicans would never stand for it.

"But they were voted out of power."

Ah. Just so.


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